Food for thought: Portugal’s attack:-

The culmination of Coach Paulo Bento’s hard work over the last 4 years or so has finally arrived and all will be tested in a seemingly tough WC campaign for Portugal.

It’s not a myth nor a secret: Portugal ARE a (much) weaker team without Cristiano Ronaldo! Therefore, should he be able to completely recover from his nagging injury (and let’s be honest, it has HUGELY affected his game over the last 2 months or so) and regain 100% fitness and form, then Portugal have every chance of success at this World Cup.

Sometimes, the stats tell most of the story and, in this case, the stats are crystal clear concerning Portugal’s main assets going forward:-


Officially speaking (i.e. not including friendlies), over the last 2 years, if Ronaldo hadn’t been (directly and/or indirectly) involved with Portugal’s 30 goals (11 of which he scored himself), then Portugal would NOT have won 7 of their 15 games in which Ronaldo actually featured. That’s close to a staggering 50%!

Including friendlies, Ronaldo featured in 22 games, scoring 17 goals, and his non-involvement would have resulted in Portugal NOT winning 9 matches; a slightly lower ratio of 40%.


Now, EVEN without considering any specific set of matches, like those qualifying play-offs against Sweden (enough said!), it would be an UNDERSTATMENT to suggest that Portugal have ANY chance of glory either without Ronaldo or with a not-fully-fit-and-in-form Ronaldo!

Furthermore, coach Bento has a few worries within his attacking lay-out; for ever since the great days of Pauleta and, to an extent, Nuno Gomes, Portugal have not had a proper and DEADLY out-and-out center-forward who can carry the goal-scoring burden easily.

Both Postiga and, a tad more, Almeida have great physical attributes but their lack of pace in addition to some of their, sometimes, trademark awful misses only add to Portugal’s worries in front of goal. Postiga’s 4 goals from ca. 16 games last season (due to recurring injuries) are not encouraging and whether he’ll be able to shake-off his recent injury and return to top fitness and form in time for Portugal’s first game remains to be seen.

Hugo Almeida had a slightly better campaign with Besiktas, scoring 15 goals from approximately 27 games (yes I know, it’s the Turkish league); but coach Bento does not seem to trust him very much in a marksman role for the team.

On the wide right hand of the field, coach Bento faces a slight dilemma in choosing who his main man will be; mainly because Nani played a meagre 8 full games this previous season. Varela is a real prospect going forward; but his tendency to “fade-out” in big games could be the reason he might not feature from the start.

Inverting Ronaldo (with full fitness and top form) into a center-forward role would, somewhat, restrict his own endless repertoire of attacking abilities and even if such a scenario would happen, Portugal’s lack of other wide players would weaken their play on either side of the pitch.

Coach Bento is probably hoping, for starters, that Ronaldo regains full-match fitness and usual form to lift the entire team and provide excellence all around the pitch. Moreover, he’ll be praying that Positga or Almeida (better yet, BOTH) bring their best shooting boots with them to Brazil!

Portugal:-

“A Seleção das Quinas” have come agonizingly close to a real shot at glory over the last decade or so at major international competitions. They hope to surpass their own expectations this time around!

In terms of headaches for head coach Paulo Bento, his defense looks rather solid; however, Bruno Alves and Pepe (injury, fitness and/or form permitting), with a combined age of 63, certainly do not form the youngest CB partnership among the 32 teams competing. Their lack of pace (especially in Bruno Alves’ case) coupled with Pepe’s trademark lapses of concentration and being caught out of position could prove to be their undoing.

Moreover, João Pereira and Fábio Coentrão are both very attack-minded SBs and, while they fit coach Bento’s strategy perfectly, their recurring forward runs often leave gaping holes either side of their defense.

Therefore, in light of the aforementioned defensive worries, it’s no surprise to find out that in the 27 games Portugal have played over the last 2 years, they have averaged (approximately) a 1.04 ratio of goals-conceded-per-game (GCG). Excluding friendlies, the ratio drops slightly to 0.88; which is still almost one goal PER game and, quite simply, not good enough.

In midfield, coach Bento has a very reliable choice of midfielders, all of whom are very talented and experienced. In fact, only a few teams competing at the WC can confidently boast such a midfield-trio, and much of Portugal’s success will depend on these players; for their positional play will be vital in protecting their somewhat leaky defense, while their vision, technique and passing (both short & long) will dictate the pace, flow and rhythm of their play going forward.

Without a doubt, Portugal tend to play in a pure counter-attacking manner under coach Bento, and it’s no secret that, given their choice of wingers, it will mainly be a case of running the channels and delivering ball after ball into the box to their target man. They like to invite pressure way deep into their own half and then launch blitz-fast counters; often catching opposition defenders off-guard.

Coach Bento places a considerable emphasis on set-pieces and he commands a very strict set-up in dead-ball situations; always trying to maximize their goal-scoring potential every time Portugal are fouled or get a corner.

Another aspect of play that should worry opposing teams is Portugal’s clear desire to shoot from distance every time space opens up in the middle of the park; as they have a large contingent of players with excellent shooting abilities and have proven, time and again, to be able to score absolute screamers.

Admittedly, a lot of work has to be done before Portugal even kick a ball at the actual WC and the degree to which coach Bento addresses his team’s weaknesses will reflect on their performances and how far they end up going in the competition.


Main man (how difficult :P): Cristiano Ronaldo: The man who almost single-handedly gave Portugal the ticket to Brazil will now want to lead his national team to more glory and cap an amazing year for him. His team surely have the elements necessary for success (compare Messi’s situation with Argentina!) and it’s time for him to shine on the international forefront. Again, no need to mention his footballing attributes!

Odds (average from top 24 betting firms): 27.41667